With the rise of self-driving vehicles and the ever increasing costs associated with having a private vehicle there is going to be a seismic shift in car ownership in the not so distant future. As with other social shifts this one will have some transition time, and there will most likely be a few outliers for quite a long time.
So what’s a leading factor to this shift?
The primary motivation is going to be the rapid improvement of self-driving technologies. Currently there are companies like Google’s Waymo, GM’s Cruze, and to a lesser extent Tesla’s Robotaxi systems operating in limited areas and in some cases with no human technician or safety driver in place. Self-driving does need to improve more though, especially around weather. Most of the world does not live in areas that have the weather that the Southwest United States has. With the increasing capabilities of artificial intelligence continuing to evolve the weather problem is only a matter of time. The other variable is human drivers, autonomous driving will be much more effective and safer when most of the vehicles are autonomous and communicating with each other and the infrastructure. Without the self-driving capabilities car ownership would not be in danger.
Why would I give up my car?
The total cost of ownership of cars keeps rising, faster than the average income. Add onto the cost of purchasing/leasing a car the cost of the insurance, registration, and maintenance. It has become pretty easy to use an app to call a car service for a ride somewhere. The cost of the car, the maintenance, and the other costs are not assumed by the rider. Those costs are assumed by the car service driver currently. There is also the economy of how much a vehicle is used. Most people have a car that sits at their house while they sleep, doing nothing. That same car sits outside of their place of work for hours, not being used. That car could be more effectively used.
Who is going to own the vehicles then?
The car manufacturers and the large companies that can afford to purchase vehicles and set up ride sharing services. The general public would use an app to request a car for when it is needed. That car will then go to someone else afterward and use it’s time effectively. The total cost of ownership will be divided among all the riders in the life of that vehicle.
What would this look like?
On Sunday I look at my week ahead and I schedule rides with my service of choice to get me to and from work Monday through Friday. I schedule rides to and from the grocery store, or I just have my groceries delivered. I schedule any other trips I need for the week. The cars show up to me, take me where I am going, then they go about their business to the next rider.
Why do I think that car manufacturers are going to be the leaders in this change?
This model is going to struggle the further away from urban and suburban areas. Rural parts of the country just would not be able to have the infrastructure to support an on-demand ride sharing service at scale. The car manufacturers will end up using the revenues of their ride sharing services in the cities to subsidize the purchase price of vehicles for rural residents. They may also help to link people in rural areas to each other so that the cost of the car and the utilization of the car can be shared among a small group of owners.
How soon is this going to happen?
This is a tricky question. Self-driving abilities need to improve greatly still. I believe that this will begin to happen in the next 25 years in more urban areas and starting in areas with nicer weather over the course of the year. As self-driving improves it will spread.
The Tall Geek 